The north winds at Mt. Hotham were 31 knots gusting to 37 knots at 9 AM. The winds at Wangaratta were north 3 knots gusting to 7 knots at 9. I reported at the pilot meeting that the RASP model called for surface winds to be 8 to 10 knots at launch at Mystic Hill, averaging 10 to 12 knots through the boundary layer, and 16 to 18 at the top of the boundary layer at 6 to 8 thousand feet at 2 PM.

The task committee recommended to Heather that we go to the Mystic Hill LZ to check out the conditions at 11:00 AM. When we got there the launch winds were 5 knots gusting to 11 knots. These winds were less than forecasted (by RASP, which was the only model forecasting the winds at launch).

We came back to the LZ at 1 PM and the winds were 11 knots on launch gusting to 17 knots. Heather stated that Ollie doesn't like to fly in winds over 17 knots at Mystic. I asked if this meant the steady winds or the gusting (thermally) winds. I didn't get an answer. The day was called due to north high winds. The north winds pin us against the hills and make it difficult to get out of the valley into the flats.

On day two of the competition I also provided a brief forecast for the winds at the 9 AM pilot briefing, which contradicted the forecast from the official weather persons (they were calling for increased winds). I (using RASP) was calling for moderate winds, decreasing at Hotham. We didn't even go out and check the winds (unlike today) which I felt may have been called for given my forecast (if they were calling the day based on a forecast of increasing winds). At least today we made the requisite attempt.

This morning I forecast (again using RASP) that the winds at Hotham would get down to less than 20 knots later in the day, and that the surface winds at Wangaratta would increase. The surface winds at Wangaratta were 7 knots gusting to 13 at 2:30 PM. The winds at Mt. Hotham winds had decreased to 21 knots gusting to 29 by 2:30 PM.

Later Update:

By 4:30 PM NNW winds at Mount Hotham had dropped to 16 knots gusting to 24. RASP was forecasting NNW winds of 16 knots at Hotham at 4 PM and 14 to 18 at 5 PM.