http://ozreport.com/ozweather.php

There were a lot of low clouds here in the morning, but I had seen it go through three different cloud regimes the day before, and wasn't too worried about the morning clouds. The satellite showed that there was only a narrow band of clouds over us and the prognosis showed it going away quickly. It also showed a front over us at 10 AM also going away quickly (another one is coming tomorrow).

Monica called a pilot briefing at the LZ east of Mt. Borah after she looked up and saw the rapidly moving clouds. The RASP forecast was calling for 18-22 knot winds up high (where the clouds were) at 10 AM and 17 knots on the ground (at 10 AM). We met at the LZ at 11 AM and the winds measured on Mt. Borah by the wind talker were reported to be 35 km/h (19 knots) gusting to 48 km/h (26 knots). The pilot briefing was delayed for an hour while pilots waited in the LZ.

Belinda and I drove up the hill. I understand why Monica calls the pilot meetings in the LZ because there are a number of pilots (I don't know if they are a majority or not) that complain if they have to drive up the hill (takes five minutes) and then they don't fly. I find this to be a poor strategy, as I feel that you need to experience the conditions to see how you feel at launch. Your feelings are a big part of the decision making process and to feel what you feel in the LZ and then to try to transfer it to the launch seems to me to be ineffective.

I measured the winds on launch in the compression zone at about eight feet off the ground with my Flytec 6030. I measured on average 17 mph (15 knots), gusting to 22 mph (19 knots). There were also long spells of 14 mph (12 knots) or less. I reported these values to Monica over the radio at around 11:20 AM.

The pilot meeting in the LZ had been "informed" that the front was still coming. That wind speeds to the west were supposedly higher than wind speeds near us and that the front was moving at 50 knots. The front, if it was to our west, was invisible. No clouds to the west and the few remaining clouds near us were passing us by to the east.

The air at our altitude and below was dusty. I couldn't see any dust being picked up off the ground, but there was an inversion, low (less than 2,500'). We are at 2,400' on launch approximately.

The RASP forecast was for a blue day (no cumulus clouds) with a very strong inversion at 6,000' to 7,000' that we would not break through.

It also forecast surface winds at about 13 knots out of the south southwest at 2 PM, and 17 knots at the top of the lift. Winds above the very strong inversion (as shown on the RASP T-skew chart) would be strong, but the RASP showed that the wind at or below the inversion would not be more than 17 knots.

But I was apparently the only one paying any attention to the RASP forecasts. The safety committee heard that the winds were high (30 knots) above the inversion and seemed to feel that the inversion would break (I don't know why) and that the strong winds would come down to us. I believe all the safety committee members were down below in the eastern LZ. Monica did speak with Al Giles who was next to me on top back a ways from launch.

I heard that the wind talker was reporting 50 km/h (27 knots) on Mt. Borah (I didn't see where the wind device was). I was measuring a top of 22 mph (19 knots) at launch.

Monica reported to Al that the safety committee called the day based on the forecast (or was it an observation) for strong winds above the inversion zone and the idea (true or not) that the inversion would break. As well at the reading from the Mt. Borah wind talker. At least this is what I understand to be the basis of their decision. I could be wrong.

I know that pilots in general are not always feeling that great about flying on blue days with winds, even if the winds aren't "unsafe," whatever that means. And I am also aware that this is not a World Class meet with everyone an experienced pilot, so that it's fine to call a day, when it's "windy."

What I don't understand is why there was a reluctance to listen to all the voices (mine was one of them) forecasting the weather and why the safety committee didn't go up the hill to check out the launch for themselves. Seems like the least that they could do.

I mean, thinking is hard, feeling is easy. Feeling that you are thinking when in fact you are feeling, is common.

Then again it is a volunteer position, that they got roped into (I'm on the task committee), so no hard feelings, and thanks again for your service to the competition.