http://www.newsweek.com/id/74383

The contrast between the official U.S. forecasts and those of the new breed of meteorologists like Cohen illustrates a face-off in the small community of long-range weather seers.

In the official U.S. forecast, for instance, since recent winters have trended warm, due in part to the greenhouse effect, this one is assumed to tilt that way also, other things being equal. The government also bases its winter forecast on El Niño,...

These traditional methods aren't bad. But in head-to-head comparisons published this past summer, the resulting forecast has been less accurate than that of scientists who grapple more directly with the physics of the atmosphere. Britain's Meteorological Office has begun basing winter forecasts on sea-surface temperatures in the Atlantic.

Thanks to David Glover.