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08.03.2019
How did the forecast work out?


Here is what I sent out on Tuesday evening:

https://ozreport.com/seweather.php

Wednesday

Sunny, with a high near 63. Wind chill values as low as 31 early. North wind 5
to 10 mph.

At 1 PM (six models):

Updraft velocity: 400 – 500 fpm

TOL: 3,000’

Wind TOUL: 11 - 17 mph, north

B/S: 2

Thursday

Sunny, with a high near 72. North wind around 5 mph becoming east in the
afternoon.

At 1 PM (four models):

Updraft velocity: 400 – 600 fpm

TOL: 3,000’ – 5,000’

Wind TOUL: 8 - 12 mph, east or northeast

B/S: 5 - 7

Friday

Sunny, with a high near 79. South southeast wind 5 to 10 mph.

At 1 PM (three models):

Updraft velocity: 600 – 700 fpm

TOL: 5,000’ – 6,000’

Wind TOUL: 10 - 15 mph, south

B/S: 6 - 8

NAM 12 (4 PM):

Updraft velocity: 600 fpm

TOL: 5,000’

Wind TOUL: 10 mph, south southwest

B/S: 8.2

Saturday

A 20 percent chance of showers after noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 82.
Southeast wind 5 to 10 mph.

At 1 PM (two models):

Updraft velocity: 600 – 800 fpm

TOL: 4,000’ – 6,000’

Wind TOUL: 15 - 17 mph, south southeast

B/S: 4 – 9

Looking good for Friday and Saturday.

TOL is top of lift or thermal tops

TOUL is top of useable lift (useable by a glider)

B/S is buoyancy to shear ratio

The values are taken from https://www.xcskies.com/ for Wilotree Park.



https://OzReport.com/1552051356
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