Wednesday evening:

Thursday

Patchy frost before 8am. Otherwise, sunny, with a high near 73. Calm wind
becoming northeast around 5 mph in the morning.

At 1 PM (six models):

Updraft velocity: 400 – 600 fpm

TOL: 3,000’ – 5,000’

Wind TOUL: 6 - 11 mph, south east or east

B/S: 4 - 10

This forecast is for slightly improved conditions relative to the Tuesday
evening forecast as the boundary/shear ratio improves to 10 in the HRRR 3
forecast, with 7 mph TOUL winds, 5,000' TOL, and Updraft velocity at 600 fpm.
The wind direction is still mostly east but there is southeast at TOL in the
HRRR 3 forecast.

Thursday morning:



Today

Sunny, with a high near 73. East wind 5 to 10 mph.

Surface winds east 7 mph.

The HRRR 3 forecast:

At 1 PM:

Updraft velocity: 600 fpm

TOL: 4,600’

Wind TOUL: 9 mph, southeast

B/S: 8

South wind at TOL 9 mph all the way to Keystone at 4 PM

Friday

Sunny, with a high near 80. Calm wind becoming east

Surface winds southeast 7 mph

The HRRR 3 forecast:

At 1 PM:

Updraft velocity: 680 fpm

TOL: 5,600’

Wind TOUL: 8 mph, south southeast

B/S: 10

TOL winds 14 mph south southeast at Keystone at 1 PM

We flew a closed task on Thursday

We launched in east or northeast winds. When the wind was strong it was
northeast. When it was light it was south east.

Leesburg airport:

The wind direction and speed matches up with the first forecast
and the later one also.

In the air we saw a general southeast flow 5 to 11 mph.

Larry was able to get to 5,900' around 1:30 PM, so the TOL was under estimated
in all the models.

It didn't get as hot as predicted, 70 instead of 73.

The vast majority of my climbs were between 100 - 200 fpm. That would indicate a
Updraft velocity of 400 fpm. 200 fpm less than the HRRR 3 forecast but within
the range of the other models on Tuesday and Wednesday evening.

So far the forecasts have been quite accurate.