Friday

Sunny, with a high near 79. Calm wind becoming southeast around 5 mph in the
morning.

Surface winds south east 7 mph.

At 1 PM (six models):

Updraft velocity: 500 - 700 fpm

TOL: 4,000’ – 6,000’

Wind TOUL: 9 - 14 mph, southeast

B/S: 4 – 10

HRRR 3 only at 2 PM:

Updraft velocity: 736 fpm

TOL: 7,000’

Wind TOUL: 10 mph, south southeast

B/S: 10

TOL winds 16 mph south southwest at Keystone at 4 PM

Georgia is possible, but mixed conditions.

Friday morning:

HRRR 3 at 11 AM:

Updraft velocity: 616 fpm

TOL: 4,970’

Wind TOUL: 8 mph, south southeast

B/S: 8.3

Skew-T says cu’s at 4,200’ at 11 AM.

TOL winds 14 mph south southwest at Folkston at 4 PM

Yes, cloudbase was 4,200' at 11 AM. The lift was a bit weaker, maybe 400 fpm
updraft velocity. Winds were south southwest up north of Starke but more like 9
mph.

Friday surface conditions at Leesburg airfield:

Overall the Tuesday night forecast got it right. See article on
the flight below.